Introduction: THE FUTURE

Please direct comments to Jess Brewer.

. . . Then felt I like some watcher of the skies

When a new planet swims into his ken;

Or like stout Cortez, when with eagle eyes

He stared at the Pacific - and all his men

Look'd at each other with a wild surmise -

Silent, upon a peak in Darien.¹

Without a tradition of adventure and discovery, neither Astronomy nor Physics would have been fun enough to survive the centuries of drudgery and frustration that accompanied our journey from primitive to modern magic. The future of Physics & Astronomy promises no shortage of frustration or drudgery; what discoveries and adventures will make it all worthwhile?

In the next half century, many futurists believe we will witness

• the discovery of Earth-like planets around other stars;
• the manned exploration of the Solar system;
• the direct detection of gravitational radiation;
• the development of quantum computers;
• machine intelligence superior (at least in simulation) to our own;
• neural interfaces between human minds and computers;
• nanomachines capable of
  • repairing or altering living cells from inside the body,
  • building virtually any physical object from simple raw materials
  • or replicating themselves from the same raw materials;
• the elimination of most diseases and many aspects of aging;
• an encyclopædic understanding of the human genome and the ability to manipulate it;
• a verifiable unified quantum theory of gravity and elementary particles;
• and even an explanation of how and why the universe came into being.

Most of these draw on basic research in Physics and Astronomy. Of course, we cannot know if these predictions will come true, nor if they will be eclipsed by even more exciting developments that are not even imaginable today. On rare occasions it may happen that we find what we are looking for, but the vast majority of all real breakthroughs are surprises. This is one reason why it is so important to encourage a diverse program of basic research; another reason is that only thus may we prepare ourselves to recognize the significance of discoveries when they appear; and yet another is that such preparations produce skills that can be turned to practical use as called for.

These are some of the reasons why society tolerates the expensive obsessions of Physicists and Astronomers. But why do we go to all this trouble? There are probably twice as many reasons as there are Physicists and Astronomers. However, among the many answers are:

• We hate mysteries and want to know why things are the way they are.
• We believe this knowledge is more efficiently stored as a few fundamental principles than as an encyclopædic catalogue of facts.
• We believe our work will help solve the world's problems someday.
• We believe our work will someday inspire awe.

Each of the predicted milestones of this half century holds both a promise and a threat. The uses to which new knowledge is put are definitely the concern of those who create it; and yet the crucial choices will always be made by non-experts. The only resolution of this conundrum is in education: we must ensure that all citizens have enough understanding of the implications and limitations of physics and of science as a whole to be able to make wise decisions about its use. It is therefore an essential part of any scientist's mission to explain his or her research as clearly as possible to others, especially those who are not scientists themselves. Our Department is committed to this goal.